4-Week Tracking: Illumination's DESPICABLE ME 4 Could Swing a $100M+ 5-Day Fourth of July Bow

Gru and the Minions Return to Anchor Another Fourth of July Weekend as SOUND OF HOPE and MAXXXINE Counter for Specialty Audiences

The industry has continued looking ahead past a soft summer start toward the heart of the season in July, a period which comes into view with this week's update.

With the Independence Day holiday landing on Thursday, July 4 this year, Universal and Illumination are getting a head start on the long holiday frame by opening the latest sequel in their beloved animated franchise on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Angel Studios will open Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot on the Thursday holiday itself. It'll be followed by A24 and Ti West's trilogy-capper, MaXXXine, on Friday.

Despicable Me 4
Universal Pictures
July 3, 2024

Key Tracking Factors:

• The long-running franchise remains quite popular with parents and kids, as evidenced by the blockbuster run of 2022's Minions: The Rise of Gru when it scored the best-ever Fourth of July weekend opening at $107 million on its way to $370.3 million domestically (part of an overall $939.4 million global run). That film was bolstered by the "Gentle-Minions" trend on Tiktok, though, so it's safe to expect some natural regression.

• Initial pre-sales are modest, but that's to be expected for a family release one month out with another major release (Inside Out 2) aiming for that exact wheelhouse in one week's time.

• Competition will be very light in the back half of summer with no other major animated or kid-centric releases on deck until August 2's Harold and the Purple Crayon. Staying power is expected to be lengthy as result, while opening against Inside Out 2's fourth frame provides plenty of distance from the Pixar tentpole and should allow both to coexist during life cycles.

• The midweek opening may create some back-loaded aspects to the film's run, but it should still generate strong business with kids out of school and many adults (parents) taking off work for what will be a long four-day weekend beginning Thursday.

• Despicable Me 2 previously enjoyed major success with an opening during the exact same calendar alignment back in 2013. It posted an $84.2 million first weekend (Friday through Sunday) on its way to $368.1 million.

Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot
Angel Studios
July 4, 2024

Key Tracking Factors:

• Angel Studios has developed a considerable grassroots following among faith-based audiences, having turned out a slew of low-budget, low-risk box office hit. This title could be a fair counter-programmer among adults within that segment.

• Though not a direct sequel, the film's title suggests an intent to lean on the breakout success of last summer's Sound of Freedom. The fellow Angel release wildly exceeded expectations to outperform multiple Hollywood tentpoles at the time, earning $184.2 million domestically.

• It's difficult to expect the same lightning-in-a-bottle success as Sound of Freedom given most of Angel's other releases have earned less than $20 million each in total. Still, much will depend on how aggressive and effective the studio's forthcoming marketing campaign ends up being for what is positioned as their centerpiece summer release.