Photo Credits: Disney & Marvel Studios (”Avengers: Endgame”); David Bolen & A24 (”Primetime”); Emmanuel Lubezki & Warner Bros. (”Digger”); Jim Frohna & Amazon MGM (”Verity”); Rob Hardy & Warner Bros. (”Clayface”)
Short and sweet update this week, so we’re going paywall-less.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
Current Weekend
Avengers Endgame: Encore posted $3.8 million from Thursday previews, in line with expectations going into the weekend. Ranges remain favorable toward $20 million-plus this weekend, although some of the bonus footage has leaked online. Always tough to measure that kind of potential impact, especially with a re-release.
Primetime posted $2.7 million from previews yesterday as it continues to perform beyond early expectations. Weekend outlooks remain in a wide range between $15 million and $22 million (the low end is looking unlikelier, though) as we’re monitoring how pre-sale and/or metro-heavy the film is in early shows.
A fellow A24 release Backrooms-like multiplier gets the pic to just a hair over $20 million this weekend. Our final forecast pinpoint was $18.1 million, though some models obviously indicate it could go a bit higher. Gen Z appeal remains a standout.
Meanwhile, Heart of the Beast also drew a solid $2 million start from all previews, while Forgotten Island scored a reported $1.48 million in previews. Both figures include all pre-Thursday and early access shows. Weekend ranges remain unchanged from earlier this week.
5-Week Forecasts
Minimal updates to cover this week, but Digger pre-sales did begin this past Tuesday. The film and its marketing, centered around Tom Cruise’s tour de force performance and press tour power, are banking on a final week surge ahead of release next Friday.
We continue to expect a close race between that film and Verity as they counter each other’s target audiences next weekend.
Most major studios are taking Halloween weekend off this year but our preliminary forecast for Briarcliff’s Christmas at the Kringles is included.
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 9/24/26
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All forecasts and tracking ranges are reflective of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not intended as final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances factored into our modeling.
Can you explain the shocking disparity between Wildwood’s 90 million trailer views and extremely low box office tracking?
Thanks! Curious about the big downshift in expectations of Digger's total earnings, relative to a small decrease in forecasted opening gross. I'm assuming it's concerning critical buzz that's responsible? Are there other categories of factors you can share that might contribute to such a big multiplier drop?