5-Week Box Office Tracking: CAPTAIN AMERICA’s Final Stretch, Plus BLACK BAG, NOVOCAINE, OPUS and Other Forecast Check-Ins
Can a Crop of Mid-March Openers Tide the Market Over In Between Tentpole Releases?
This report also appears on Box Office Theory’s website.
Our weekly report dives into the middle of March with a handful of additions to the public forecast, current standings for the imminent holiday duo of Captain America and Paddington, plus other updates.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
As pre-sales and marketing start to crescendo next week after the Super Bowl, Captain America: Brave New World remains in a prime position.. Promotional touring is underway with Anthony Mackie and Harrison Ford drumming up buzz about the film. Now, we wait for next week’s review embargo to get a fuller sense of whether or not the film will reach (or exceed) current forecast ranges.
The second full weekend of March is slated for five wide releases now that Ketchup Entertainment has delayed their Looney Tunes acquisition by two weeks to that frame, presumably as a response to the success of Dog Man and the upcoming Paddington in Peru.
Also on that weekend, Focus will court fans of adult drama-thrillers with Black Bag, Pinnacle Peak with The Last Supper will aim for the faith-based market that’s been dominated by a crop of other studios in recent years, Paramount hopes to reel in audiences with the high-concept action-comedy Novocaine, and A24 drops their latest psychological horror-drama with Opus.
Novocaine likely boasts the most potential in this group of new releases, though its own buzz and reception on the prior week’s Mickey 17 will probably be impactful one way or another.
Unfortunately, Opus has been met with underwhelming critics’ reviews (39 percent fresh from 28 Rotten Tomatoes submissions). The saturation of genre films in this space since last year and through this winter will also probably limit the film from the studio’s more high-performing box office ranges.
5-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 2/6/25
(click image below to zoom)
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.
Photo Credits: Focus Features ("Black Bag"); Jacques Jouffret & Paramount ("Novocaine")