5-Week Tracking & Forecasts: DEN OF THIEVES 2: PANTERA, Plus the Latest KRAVEN, LORD OF THE RINGS, MUFASA, and SONIC 3 Updates

2025's First Forecasts Come Into Short-Range View, While 2024 Is Still Poised to End Strong

KEY UPDATE: Kraven the Hunter’s forecast has been temporarily removed due to an internal calculation and publication error that we didn’t catch last week. We apologize for the confusion and will have an updated projection before its release on December 13.

This report also appears on Box Office Theory’s website.

Our short-range outlook this week takes a first look into 2025 with the addition of Den of Thieves 2: Pantera, opening from Lionsgate on January 10. Additional updates are noted below.

For inquiries on forward-looking box office projection services, please contact us.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Kraven the Hunter's early pre-sales window has generally followed expected pathing in sample markets with initial traction slightly behind the likes of Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom and Furiosa. There's enough momentum at the moment to warrant a minor upgrade in expectations, though the comic book adaptation field still gives consideration toward volatility before next week's release. UPDATE: Due to a calculation and publication error internally, this previous update is being redacted. We apologize for the confusion and will have an updated Kraven forecast before its December 13 release.

• Conversely, Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim is slower out of the gate in its early pre-sale modeling than projected. The pre-existing Tolkien fan base would normally be expected to generate noticeable upfront demand, but the anime nature of this film could also skew the typical demographics for the previously live-action-based franchise. Key comparisons at this point include The Boy and the Heron and Godzilla Minus One.

• Christmas week releases Mufasa, Sonic the Hedgehog 3, and Nosferatu continue to look encouraging in varying ways. The lattermost of the three is receiving rave reviews from early critics’ screenings.

• Den of Thieves 2: Pantera marks the new year’s first major studio new release. The male-driven action genre has seen steady results at the box office in recent years and Gerard Butler’s return, alongside O’Shea Jackson Jr. and 50 Cent, could reel in a sizable portion of the original film’s fan base. There isn’t much content targeting the same core audience immediately before or after opening, so this could be a candidate to perform on the upper end of expectations for now. The beginning of NFL playoffs the same weekend may have some impact.

5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 12/5/24
(click image to zoom)

All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.

Photo Credits: Terry Stacey & Lionsgate ("Den of Thieves 2: Pantera")