5-Week Tracking & Forecasts: MUFASA: THE LION KING and SONIC THE HEDGEHOG 3’s Early Box Office Ranges, Plus WICKED, GLADIATOR II, and MOANA 2 Updates
5-Week Tracking & Forecasts: MUFASA: THE LION KING and SONIC THE HEDGEHOG 3’s Early Box Office Ranges, Plus WICKED, GLADIATOR II, and MOANA 2 Updates
Early Projections for This Year's Heavy-Hitters Over Christmas and New Year's, Plus WICKED and GLADIATOR II Updates
This report also appears on Box Office Theory’s website.
This week’s short range outlook at key theatrical releases takes a peak toward the heart of the holiday season with the corridor’s final duo of tentpoles slated to open on December 20. The usual updates on other pivotal films closer on the horizon are also included below.
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Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
One week from release, the tandem of Wicked and Gladiator II remain strong in pre-release tracking.
The former will have two separate early access showings ahead of traditional Thursday previews next week, all grosses from which are expected to be rolled into the opening weekend figure. Interest among women in the 35+ bracket is strongest, but appeal is showing signs of branching out to some degree thanks to the film’s strong reviews, existing IP, and family-accessible PG rating. Still, projections are volatile as sample pre-sales also indicate this is drawing intense fan interest which skews the spectrum of expected walk-up business.
Meanwhile, Gladiator II is experiencing its own volatility in projections. Pre-sales in sample markets remain quite healthy and critics’ reviews are encouraging. With minimal direct competition after its release, staying power should be strong, but competition with Wicked and Moana 2 for premium screens in the coming weeks makes for challenged modeling.
As for the headliners, Mufasa: The Lion King currently has the advantage among December 20’s two major studio openers thanks to the Disney fan base and a wave of positive social media sentiment from the latest trailer launch. Diminished returns from 2019’s remake of the original film are virtually inevitable as a prequel, but the holiday window and family audience should carry it to respectable earnings driven by families.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 isn’t far behind, though. In fact, this race box office race could end up very close on either side of the coin (or ring, for you Sonic fans) as Sonic‘s pre-release metrics aren’t dissimilar from Mufasa‘s in terms of opening weekend potential. The latter will likely enjoy stronger legs into early 2025 without much family competition, but Sonic has a relatively front-loaded male fan base young and old that helped the previous two films over-perform against expectations. PLF screens will be at a literal and figurative premium between these two pre-Christmas openers (and possibly other holdovers), while demand for shows could be more spread out than usual for either franchise entry thanks to the start of Christmas and New Year’s school and work breaks from the outset of the weekend.
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 11/14/24
(click image below to zoom)
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.
Photo Credits: James Laxton; Photo courtesy of Disney. © 2024 Disney Enterprises Inc. All Rights Reserved. ("Mufasa: The Lion King"); Brandon Trost & Paramount ("Sonic the Hedgehog 3")