5-Week Tracking & Forecasts: WICKED, GLADIATOR II, and MOANA 2 Increasingly Poised to Anchor a Robust Thanksgiving Corridor

Early December, Like November, Boasts Little on the Slate as Studios Cram Their Biggest and Best Into the Peak Holiday Corridors

This report also appears on Box Office Theory’s website.

This week’s update takes a brief look at where things stand for key releases hitting theaters over the next month-plus as our five-week window creeps into the post-Thanksgiving lull that will precede a second wave of holiday tentpoles later in December.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Moana 2 began its pre-sales window earlier this week following last week’s debut of five-week tracking. Initial trends show the anticipated Disney sequel is already looking to beat some of our more cautious expectations, though we remain considerate of how word of mouth for the once-planned streaming-turned-movie release will pan out alongside the similarly female-leaning Wicked in the market. Moana 2‘s strongest demographics are among kids and women over 35, representing the strong family factor Disney will again bank on through the holidays. We could yet see models rise again if current trends prove sustainable, but for now, most closely resemble The Little Mermaid‘s pre-release tracking.

• “Glicked” / “Wickiator” weekend remains of growing interest. Gladiator II and Wicked are still strong at their relative pre-release points with Wicked particularly continuing to impress on the back of strong pre-sales and early reviews via the lifted social embargo. How far and wide the audience can expand outside a dedicated fan base remains debatable, but models are still bullish for the time being in a theatrical market that will be overdue for a big hit in mid-November alongside the male-leaning Gladiator sequel. Wicked remains a candidate to attract a big audience (Broadway and musical theater fans) that don’t typically show up in traditional box office tracking.

• Nearer to release, Heretic continues to trend well across the usual channels with buzz strong among horror cinephiles and A24 fans. It looks likely to challenge for the top two or three spots at the box office when it debuts next week against The Best Christmas Pageant Ever.

• As for the first frame of December, we’re currently withholding public forecasts for A24’s Y2K and Paramount’s re-release of Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar until more distribution details are confirmed.

5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 10/31/24
(click image below to zoom)

All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.

Photo Credits: Dan Mindel & Amazon MGM Studios ("Red One"); Alice Brooks & Universal ("Wicked"); John Mathieson & Paramount ("Gladiator II"); © 2024 Disney Enterprises, Inc. All Rights Reserved. ("Moana 2")