6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: ANACONDA, MARTY SUPREME and Christmas Week Updates; First Outlooks for SEND HELP and January Release Check-Ins
As 2025 winds down, brace for shifting forecasts in the type of crowded market that hasn't appeared during the holiday window for a few years.
A preview of this report appears on Box Office Theory’s website.
Due to the holidays over the next two weeks, the cadence of these updates will be a little off-schedule. We’ll aim to publish an update early next week before Christmas, while likely taking off New Year’s week and resuming normal cadence in early January.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
As always, the holidays are throwing several wrenches into the box office forecasting machine. With a particularly crowded field of new releases (7 going wide within a week of each other), we expect some volatility and inevitable under- and/or over-performers.
Coastal cities are tracking very well for Marty Supreme, but the unknown factor will be how the film plays everywhere else. The secret sauce here continues to be Timothée Chalamet, whose appeal among young audiences, especially women, may be what helps send it over the edge compared to most period-set sporting dramas.
Anaconda continues to be one of the more challenging models as it will rely on walk-up business as a PG-13-rated comedy with two star leads. Song Sung Blue will also fall back on its star power, though as a crowd-pleasing, female-driven musical, it could stand out.
Looking to January, our first forecasts for Sam Raimi’s Send Help and the Jason Statham-led Shelter are now available to subscribers. We’ll also soon be including a first look at Iron Lung from the star YouTube streamer Markiplier, slated to open January 30.
6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 12/18/25
(click or tap chart to expand)
