6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: DiCaprio & Anderson’s ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER, GABBY’S DOLLHOUSE, and THE STRANGERS: CHAPTER 2; Early KPOP DEMON HUNTERS SING-ALONG and HAMILTON Targets
Can DiCaprio and Anderson turn a cinephile event into a larger mainstream autumn box office winner? How are the unexpected musical events of late summer and early fall trending?
A preview of this report appears on Box Office Theory’s website.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
One Battle After Another is currently the favorite to lead the weekend of September 26 thanks to Leonardo DiCaprio’s star presence, Paul Thomas Anderson’s cinephile standing, and a strong early trailer campaign that has heavily pushed an IMAX release. In what’s more of a quirky thriller than some of DiCaprio’s biggest career successes, this is likely more of a sleeper-leaning title with demographics leaning toward the 35-plus segment. Future marketing and buzz could elevate potential more.
Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie will aim to win the mom-and-daughter crowd with a live-action and animation hybrid adaptation of the popular series. Audience reach is likely more narrow than the likes of Dog Man or The Wild Robot, but a lack of kid-friendly releases on this part of the calendar could be advantageous.
The Strangers: Chapter 2 will appeal mostly to the core audience which drove Chapter 1 to an $11.8 million debut in May 2024. Opening one week after Him and three weeks after The Conjuring: Last Rites will keep the planned trilogy’s middle chapter mostly fan-driven.
Closer to the home front, preliminary low-end targets have been set for both Netflix’s KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event (August 23 and August 24) as well as Disney’s theatrical release of Hamilton. Both have impressed in their own ways during initial pre-sale windows across exhibitor samples, but it remains to be seen how front-loaded they are as musical special engagements (and whether or not Netflix opts to report box office earnings in the case of Kpop).
6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 8/14/25
(click or tap chart to expand)
