Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: THE FANTASTIC FOUR: FIRST STEPS Still On Course for ~$125M+ Ahead of Tuesday Review Embargo

Ahead of Marvel's highly anticipated next chapter, it's business as usual for most of the remaining summer slate with only modest movement in current forecasting models.

A preview of this report appears on Box Office Theory’s website.

Late August is light on major releases, so our update this weekend continues to focus on summer’s final run of key openers over the next few weeks.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• The Fantastic Four: First Steps continues at an expected pace for yet another week as tracking and pre-sales fit within the usual Marvel mode, accounting for direct competition against Superman‘s first week of release (which has displayed early positive holds).

  • Acceleration on the sales front is expected next week as the film’s review embargo lifts late Monday night Friday night (social reactions) and Tuesday morning (full critics’ reviews).

  • Current modeling puts Thursday’s previews on pace for $22 million at the low end, potentially climbing to $25 million or slightly more depending on final buzz momentum after those early industry reactions drop online.

• As Smurfs looks to perform quietly in its debut this weekend, models increasingly favor The Bad Guys 2 becoming a solid animated option for kids and parents.

• The Naked Gun remains highly volatile on the forecast front as a legacy IP slapstick comedy with targeted appeal to older male audiences, but early social reactions from industry critics has been quite positive.

• We remain encouraged by Freakier Friday‘s positioning as a late summer, female-driven, family-friendly comedy given its legacy IP status across several generations. Pre-sales aren’t likely to pick up until closer to release as Disney’s marketing machine remains honed in on Fantastic Four, but we’ll continue to monitor.

• Similarly, Weapons remains a target for a potential breakout in three weeks as an elevated horror tentpole with IMAX footprints and plenty of heat from genre fans, social buzz, and trailer imprints.