5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: Can FREAKIER FRIDAY and WEAPONS Deliver a Potent Counter-Programming Duo in August?

Disney's latest 2000s-era IP revival hopes to bookend a summer which has already seen their LILO & STITCH remake break the bank, while Zach Cregger's next original horror is firing up genre fan buzz.

A preview of this report appears on Box Office Theory’s website.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Freakier Friday aims to rekindle some of the nostalgia-driven magic that has fueled recent, legacy IP revivals such as Lilo & Stitch, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, and Mean Girls, among others.

  • Primarily courting female audiences, this could be a notable generational crossover thanks to Disney’s strong branding and the draw of bringing both Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan back.

  • Early social trends and trailer views are encouraging for the comedy sequel, though any potential breakout among the target audience will likely necessitate a marketing focus on social platforms like TikTok and Instagram rather than YouTube and legacy social apps like Facebook and X/Twitter as release approaches.

  • With very little theatrical content aimed squarely at women this summer, this stands to be in a good late-summer position where it can fill a void for an underserved audience while simultaneously offering a family-friendly option that will go largely unchallenged late September’s Gabby’s Dollhouse film.

• Weapons is counter-programming on the second frame of August with a highly buzzed-about original horror from Zach Cregger following his success with Barbarian.

  • Trailer and social trends are notably strong for an original film this far out from release, drawing model comparisons to the likes of Longlegs, M3GAN, Smile, and others.

  • A strong ensemble cast should bolster appeal among casual horror fans, as would critical and audience reception if they live up to early marketing.

  • Competition will be light throughout August before Warner Bros.’ own The Conjuring: Last Rites arrives in early September, setting up a potentially word-of-mouth-driven theatrical runway into early fall.

• With review embargos for Superman set to fall late Monday night (social reviews) and Tuesday afternoon (critics’ reviews), the next key update for projections will come after that and this current holiday weekend skewed by Jurassic World Rebirth‘s market share.

  • Superman‘s Thursday pre-sales are currently pacing for roughly $20 million when weighed against comps like Thunderbolts* and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, but next week’s acceleration rate and potential family appeal will play a role in where that number and weekend haul actually land.

  • It’s also posting a stronger Friday-through-Sunday share of weekend pre-sales so far, which could elevate its internal multiplier in relation to other summer comic book films depending on word of mouth.