Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA 2, MICHAEL, and MORTAL KOMBAT II Continue Pacing for a Healthy Pre-Memorial Day Window; MARIO GALAXY Flying to $180-190M+ Start

As MARIO GALAXY dominates Easter weekend, spring movie season is again in a solid spot as year-over-year box office is up more than 23%.

A preview of this report appears on Box Office Theory’s website.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

  • Following our final forecast earlier in the week, everything remains on course for a domestic performance at the highest end of industry expectations. With $59.1 million in the bank after two days, Galaxy is pacing 1 percent ahead of its 2023 predecessor through the same point after an opening day that was 9 percent ahead ($34.5 million versus $31.7 million).

  • Factoring in expected frontloaded trends and markedly higher average ticket prices from three years ago, Galaxy is on course for the biggest five-day domestic opening since Moana 2 ($225.4 million) with an expected $180-190 million-plus start.

• Elsewhere, trends are fairly unchanged since last week’s report.

  • Michael still looks like a standout later this month, albeit with pre-sale pacing behind the likes of Wicked and other recent musical-heavy films. Late-stage momentum remains speculative but that plus walk-up sales could yet drive forecasts a little higher once more data supports it.

  • The Devil Wears Prada 2 remains among the best pre-sellers of the year so far with the universe of tracking metrics, demographic interest, and trailer footprints well ahead of comps like The Housemaid and Freakier Friday. We anticipate a high quotient of the advance buying audience to be in play here, but trends a month out from release remain impressive nonetheless.

  • Following last week’s early outlook on Mortal Kombat II, the video game sequel will have two weeks to focus on its male-centric audience before The Mandalorian & Grogu opens Memorial Day weekend. We’ll offer up early forecasts for that title soon, as well as those for May 15 openers In the Grey, Is God Is, Obsession, and the 40th anniversary re-release of Top Gun.

  • Preliminary forecasts are also now available for The Sheep Detectives, as well as Billie Eilish and James Cameron’s Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D).

Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 4/2/26
(download PDF below to view the full chart)