Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: MOANA Update, THE ODYSSEY and SPIDER-MAN: BRAND NEW DAY Check-Ins, Plus Early August Outlooks

Midsummer box office remains in a strong place despite a couple of recent underperformances, while THE ODYSSEY and SPIDER-MAN now lurk in the shadows of a top-heavy July and August.

Photo Credits: Disney (”Moana”); Universal (”The Odyssey”); Sony & Marvel Studios (”Spider-Man: Brand New Day”)

This week’s update will be quick and free to all subscribers as we enter the 4th of July frame with only a few major wide releases on the short-range calendar.

Of note, next week’s 5-week and weekend forecasts may be delayed or shortened as I’ll be taking some quick time off from computer screens between the holiday and the busy month ahead.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Although post-July 4th trends could pick up to some extent, Moana is pacing behind its expected pathing at this point before release. We remain somewhat optimistic that it could have a solid runway through summer as one of the last family- and female-driven tentpoles opening before the fall, but opening weekend metrics are looking more challenging coming on the heels of Toy Story 5‘s blockbuster success and the kid-friendly business of Minions & Monsters.

• Pre-sales for The Odyssey across our sample markets remain dominated by IMAX and premium screens ahead of an expected uptick in general pre-sale interest amid final marketing stages after the July 4th weekend.

  • Multiple outlets are reporting social media reactions from critics in select cities will be allowed starting Monday, July 6, followed by the full review embargo lift on July 15. This follows a similar pattern employed by Universal for Oppenheimer three summers ago.

  • A new trailer released to mostly positive reactions and organic social scores earlier this week. For full context, waves of negative sentiment have affected user ratings on targeted social media and trailer pages. This appears mostly tied to political/influencer-based rating bombing campaigns, but it is nonetheless something to be aware of in this day and age, unfortunately.

• Similarly, Spider-Man: Brand New Day claims no major updates this week. Buzz continues chugging along at a strong pace with the next potential revision in forecasts (if needed) not exepcted until mid-July at the earliest.

• Joining our five-week outlook this week are three early August titles: Eli Roth’s Ice Cream Man will look bring out his fan base and genre fans, One Night Only will counter for young date night audiences, and Super Troopers 3 will aim to bring back franchise fans.

  • All three are likely to live in the shadow of Spidey’s second frame, which depending upon audience reception, should still comfortably lead the box office on the weekend of August 7.

5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 7/2/26
(click or tap image to expand)

All forecasts and tracking ranges are reflective of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not intended as final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances factored into our modeling.