Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: Nate Bargatze’s THE BREADWINNER ($15M+) Could Be an Early 2026 Sleeper Hit; Colleen Hoover’s REMINDERS OF HIM Early Outlook and More Updates

Nate Bargatze has dominated the comedy and entertainment worlds in recent years with a far-from-overnight success story. How could his leap to the big screen perform?

A preview of this report appears on Box Office Theory’s website.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• The Breadwinner (March 13)

  • Traditional comedies have had a rough go at the box office in recent years, with only occasional exceptions. That said, Nate Bargatze is riding a wave of historic popularity following his record-breaking stand-up comedy tours, streaming specials, and viral skits from multiple Saturday Night Live and award hosting appearances. With a widespread fan base and significant family appeal, file this one under the “massive sleeper” category as a potential box office breakout to watch for — particularly among middle America moviegoers with some crossover appeal among faith- and values-based audiences.

• Reminders of Him (March 13)

  • The latest adaptation of a Colleen Hoover novel should bring out her loyal fans, but this one is modeling slightly more conservatively than Regretting You which had notable star power behind it.

Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 1/22/26
(download PDF below to view full ranges and pinpoint forecasts)