Photo Credits: Disney & Marvel Studios (”Avengers: Endgame”); Dariusz Wolski & Sony (”Resident Evil”); David Bolen & A24 (”Primetime”); Mauro Fiore & Paramount (”Heart of the Beast”); Universal (”Forgotten Island”)
A preview of this report appears on Box Office Theory’s website.
Avengers Endgame: Encore (Disney)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $18 — 27 million
Primetime (A24)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $15 — 22 million
Heart of the Beast (Paramount)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $14 — 19 million
Forgotten Island (Universal)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $14 — 19 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
After a franchise-best and banner R-rated video game(*) adaptation debut at $60.2 million last weekend, the sophomore frame of Resident Evil will hope to ride out positive reception (95 percent and 91 percent from critics and audiences, respectively, on Rotten Tomatoes). Zach Cregger’s will be able to maintain some premium screen presence, notably in IMAX where it will split showtimes with…
…Avengers Endgame: Encore. As a re-release promising a handful of minutes of new content and a sneak peak at Avengers: Doomsday, this will be a fan-driven event. Still, as re-issues and specialty engagements go, it’s pacing at the upper echelon as per our recent forecasts. Key comps includes last year’s Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith re-issue and the Stranger Things 5 series finale event over the holidays. This will also be an audience beta test, of sorts, for Disney’s new “Infinity Vision” premium screen branding.
“Sleeper hit” status is in full force for Primetime thanks to significant appeal among Gen Zers and Millennials, although we caution demand is likely to be top-heavy in metro markets like New York and Los Angeles. Still, A24 has made noise as a prominent box office player in recent times, and Robert Pattinson’s pop culture impact throughout 2026 has gone fully viral (“Would somebody get these BEGGARS out of here?!” memes have been relentless across social media feeds since The Odyssey released). Combined with broader media coverage surrounding the film’s key player, Chris Hansen, this is turning into one of the most intriguing releases of the season. Reviews are strong at 90 percent fresh on Rotten Tomatoes.
Brad Pitt and director David Ayer are appealing to middle America with a heartfelt veteran-and-his-dog story that’s also earning critical raves (92 percent on RT). The counter-programming strategy is smart, and — ***spoiler alert*** … screenings revealing that the dog survives the film’s narrative …***end spoiler*** — are the last pieces we needed to have increased confidence in commercial potential. Pitt’s female audience could be a key driver here even with the male-driven component of the film’s draw going up against American football.
Meanwhile, Universal and DreamWorks will court families with young kids through Forgotten Island, itself receiving stellar reviews (100 percent fresh after 38 submissions). With roughly 95 percent of schools in session and modest pre-sale activity so far, we’re cautious on this weekend’s debut but it wouldn’t be surprising to see word of mouth translate into an over-performance and/or long legs through fall breaks and into holiday season with the lack of competition ahead.
Weekend Forecast
(click or tap chart to expand)
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.