Box Office Weekend Forecast: JURASSIC WORLD REBIRTH Eyes $115-137M+ 5-Day Domestic Launch

Diminished returns from recent franchise installments are inevitable, but it's never wise to count out dinosaurs on the big screen.

This report also appears on Box Office Theory’s website.

Jurassic World Rebirth
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $115 – 137 million (5-Day Wed-Sun)
Traditional Industry Tracking: ~$100 million (5-Day Wed-Sun)

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Fourth of July weekend is notoriously one of the most challenging to project when it comes to box office. Sometimes, the right combination of crowd-pleasers can ignite attendance. Conversely, competition with vacations, barbeque plans, and fireworks can wreak havoc on expected audience behavior.

• With that in mind, Jurassic World Rebirth is aiming to capture one of the best Independence Day openings on record, with the asterisk that some films it’s measured against had 3- and 4-day bows depending on what day the holiday landed.

  • The most recent occurrences with July 4 on a Friday were 2020 and 2014, the former during COVID shutdowns and the latter being in a somewhat different era of theatrical exhibition at this point.

• In pre-sales, comps are naturally imperfect for a Wednesday opener ahead of a midsummer holiday.

  • The closest benchmark is last year’s Despicable Me 4, which opened on the same Wednesday but saw the holiday skew grosses on Thursday. Rebirth is pacing ahead of that family-friendly sequel in exhibitor samples. While Jurassic is known to be walk-up friendly, it might be a stretch to expect a similar multiple as an animated title.

  • The notable absence of IMAX is also a major factor in weighing average ticket prices and other models for Rebirth, alongside the strong word of mouth for F1: The Movie which retains those IMAX screens for a second weekend and is a candidate to spoil some of Jurassic‘s adult male audience.

  • The Brad Pitt film boasts a hearty 97 percent audience score on Rotten Tomatoes, while Rebirth is dividing critics (52 percent fresh) after the previous two sequels (77 percent for Dominion and 48 percent for Fallen Kingdom) already saw diminished returns due to mixed audience word of mouth.

Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)

This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 9 percent below the same weekend in 2024 ($151.7 million), led by Despicable Me 4‘s $75 million three-day portion, and 21 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($174.2 million), led by Spider-Man: Far from Home‘s $92.6 million three-day tally.

All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.

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Photo Credits: John Mathieson & Universal ("Jurassic World Rebirth")