Box Office Weekend Forecast: SPIDER-MAN: BRAND NEW DAY and THE ODYSSEY On Course for Potential $300M+ Combined Moviegoing Frame
Marvel and Spidey are chasing their own records while Nolan's epic remains a force as the weekend ahead may rival "Barbenheimer"'s moviegoing attendance three years ago.
Photo Credits: Sony & Marvel Studios (”Spider-Man: Brand New Day”); Universal & Syncopy (”The Odyssey”)
Spider-Man: Brand New Day (Sony)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $250 — 290 million
Studio Tracking: $195 million
The Odyssey (Universal)
BOT Domestic 3rd Weekend Forecast Range: $45 — 52 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
The first live-action Peter Parker movie in nearly five years continues to soar in final pre-release tracking. Spider-Man: Brand New Day‘s excellent reviews (91 percent Certified Fresh from 158 critics on Rotten Tomatoes) only add to the weekend’s potential.
When we start talking numbers this large, all variables of context have to be kept in mind. For starters, the Spidey and broader Marvel franchises are massively pre-sale focused, which warrants at least some caution for ballooning expectations as the weekend approaches.
That said, a 12pm Thursday preview start (following Wednesday’s Prime Early Access shows) effectively makes this a four-day opening that will be condensed into a “Friday through Sunday” opening. (On average, most Thursday previews begin anywhere from 2pm to 7pm excluding early access cases.)
Capacity issues aren’t necessarily a concern, but Brand New Day lacks IMAX screens to give ticket prices (and the box office take) the extra boost seen by most Marvel films.
Walk-up potential remains high with the character’s generational and universal appeal across all demographics. Tom Holland and Zendaya are also major factors here with high interest among under-35 audiences compared even to recent MCU films.
Deadpool & Wolverine‘s standing July opening record of $211.4 million is likely to be surpassed by BND this weekend.
While nothing is locked, especially with projections this monumental, an all-time top five domestic opening seems achievable. Currently, those are:
Avengers: Endgame ($357.1 million)
Spider-Man: No Way Home ($260.1 million)
Avengers: Infinity War ($257.7 million)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($247.97 million)
Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($220 million)
Meanwhile, The Odyssey won’t be slowing down much, though it could see some temporary impact with such massive competition.
The global blockbuster’s sophomore frame continued a climb up the all-time best charts for Christopher Nolan and R-rated films after easing just 27.1 percent from its debut, comparable to the hold of Top Gun: Maverick in its second weekend. IMAX retention and demand will remain very strong this weekend and beyond.
Our forecast may be slightly on the aggressive side but it banks on the “moviegoing begets moviegoing” philosophy as word of mouth remains a huge part of the pop culture moment (not to mention, again, the “Tom Holland and Zendaya” component which may or may not inspire some double-headers).
Domestic box office has a significant chance to exceed $300 million all in this weekend. That’s only happened four times in history, the most recent being “Barbenheimer” weekend ($311.3 million) in July 2023.
The all-time record of $402.1 million (the weekend Avengers: Endgame released in April 2019) is out of reach, but the weekend Infinity War debuted in April 2018 (driving almost $315 million) and the December 2015 frame ($313.3 million) which saw Star Wars: The Force Awakens debut are just slightly ahead of the aforementioned 2023 Nolan-Barbie face-off.
This weekend has more than a puncher’s chance of topping all three for the #2 highest grossing box office weekend ever.
Weekend Forecast
(click or tap chart to expand)
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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