Shawn Robbins @ Box Office Theory

Shawn Robbins @ Box Office Theory

Weekend Forecasts

Box Office Weekend Forecast: MERCY ($8-10M+) Should Dethrone AVATAR; Fathom’s LORD OF THE RINGS Anniversary Continues; NFL and Winter Weather May Be Problematic

A new #1 film may actually come to fruition for the first time in over a month, but American football playoffs and a significant winter storm could hold back much of the domestic market.

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Shawn Robbins
Jan 21, 2026
∙ Paid

This report also appears on Box Office Theory’s website.

Last week’s purported Avatar-topper didn’t quite pan out up to expectations, but now Amazon MGM’s first major release of the year will take its shot.

Mercy
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $8 — 13 million
Traditional Studio Tracking: $13 million+

The Lord of the Rings Trilogy (25th Anniversary Fath…

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