Box Office Weekend Forecast: MICKEY 17 ($17.5M+) and RULE BREAKERS ($2M+) Debut as Late Winter Moviegoing Blues Linger
Pacing for $2.5 million+ in Thursday domestic previews, will Warner Bros. and Bong Joon-ho's spring tentpole bring a brief lift to another between-seasons (albeit, mostly expected) box office slump?
This report also appears on Box Office Theory’s website.
Last week’s top ten at the box office earned $45.1 million, a sum which marked the lowest since Super Bowl weekend *last year* ($29.1 million), even landing below this year’s big game frame last month ($46.3 million).
Unfortunately, the bar is low and even that $45.1 million tally won’t be exceeded by a substantive amount in the weekend ahead as the late winter/early spring movie slate continues to live down to our bearish expectations entering the year.
Whereas we were talking about Dune: Part Two and Kung Fu Panda 4 twelve months ago, the same point on the calendar this year has long looked absent such widely commercial content.
Mickey 17
Warner Bros. Pictures
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: ~$20 million
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $17.5 – 22.5 million
BOT Domestic Total Forecast Range: $44 – 69 million ($55 million pinpoint)
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
Mickey 17 traction has stalled at the low end of our earlier tracking models, with pre-sales closely resembling an amalgamation of Furiosa, Argylle, and The Creator. Thursday previews are currently trending toward $2.5 million or slightly higher.
Fortunately, reviews are strong (87 percent fresh from 77 Rotten Tomatoes critics), and PLF demand is healthy. If general audience walk-ups deliver above expected thresholds, a shot at $20 million-plus this weekend remains on the table.
Minimal competition in the weeks ahead could bode well for staying power if Mickey is able to transpose industry buzz, critical reception, and Parasite goodwill into positive word of mouth. Still, sci-fi comedies are challenging sells outside core demographics, as noted in earlier analyses.
With the loss of IMAX and other PLF screens, plus shared male audience crossover, Captain America: Brave New World will take a dollar-for-dollar hit against Mickey. Attendance will be somewhat less impacted as BNW remains the most demographically-wide appealing marquee film in release at the moment.
Angel Studios’ Rule Breakers is trending along a similar path as their recent Brave the Dark and Lionsgate’s The Unbreakable Boy.
Absent any competition, family-driven films should post robust holds this weekend.
Vertical Entertainment will release In the Lost Lands, but we’re excluding it from forecasts with minimal information from the distributor thus far.
NEON is also expected to give Anora additional screens this weekend after its big Oscar-winning night on Sunday. In the “before times” of Oscar seasons prior to the pandemic, streaming, and shorter theatrical windows, such a strategy would typically drive expectations of the film landing in the top ten.
Weekend Forecast
(click image to zoom)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 61 percent below the same weekend in 2024 ($131.1 million, led by Kung Fu Panda 4‘s debut and Dune: Part Two‘s second frame) and 74 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($198.1 million, led by Captain Marvel‘s opening weekend)
.All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.
Photo Credits: Darius Khondji & Warner Bros. ("Mickey 17")