Photo Credits: Sony & Marvel Studios (”Spider-Man: Brand New Day”); Sony (”Insidious: Out of the Further”); Universal & Syncopy (”The Odyssey”)
Spider-Man: Brand New Day (Sony)
BOT Domestic 4th Weekend Forecast Range: $37 — 46 million
Insidious: Out of the Further (Sony)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $23 — 28 million
The Odyssey (Universal)
BOT Domestic 6th Weekend Forecast Range: $18 — 23 million
Mutiny (Lionsgate)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $5 — 8.5 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
Late summer box office continues to fire on all cylinders thanks to a group of counter-programmers alongside the historic duo of Spidey and Odysseus.
Coming off the second highest 3rd weekend in domestic box office history, Spider-Man: Brand New Day will face modest competition from a PG-13 horror sequel this weekend while also seeing some premium screen reduction.
Still, momentum is with the Marvel blockbuster as it looks to rival Top Gun: Maverick ($44.7 million) and Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($42.4 million) on the back end of the top five 4th weekend grosses in history. Outside that cluster stand the likes of The Super Mario Bros. Movie ($40.835 million), Black Panther ($40.82 million), and The Avengers ($36.7 million).
On the lifetime charts, BND should surpass the final $814.9 million haul of Spider-Man: No Way Home before the weekend begins.
It’s entirely possible BND‘s domestic lifetime total will surpass $858.373 million by the end of this weekend or very early next week. That’s the mark needed to eclipse Avengers: Endgame as the second highest box office tally in domestic history. Force Awakens ($936.66 million) would then be its next and final potential hurdle.
The aforementioned Insidious: Out of the Further should be walk-up friendly among young adults and teens, although the franchise is certainly well-established enough at this point that it could be somewhat fan-driven following the conclusions of the primary character story arc with 2023’s Insidious: The Red Door.
Christopher Nolan will continue his march up the all-time charts this weekend as The Odyssey regains some IMAX presence and continues its own momentum after a soft 25.6 percent decline last frame. The added premium shows and prices, coupled with limited competition in the market, could lead to a very light drop this weekend.
Nolan’s The Dark Knight remains the current domestic titleholder in his career thus far. That film’s lifetime total of $534.99 million looks to be surpassed by The Odyssey this weekend. It would also put the film in the top 20 highest stateside earners ever. 2019’s The Lion King remake ($543.6 million) would be next in sight.
Countering this weekend are the latest Jason Statham actioner (Mutiny), the 25th anniversary re-issue of The Fast and the Furious, plus Spa Weekend and The Magic Faraway Tree.
Weekend Forecast
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All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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