Photo Credits: Sony & Marvel Studios (”Spider-Man: Brand New Day”); Universal & Syncopy (”The Odyssey”)
Spider-Man: Brand New Day (Sony)
BOT Domestic 2nd Weekend Forecast Range: $142 — 160 million
The Odyssey (Universal)
BOT Domestic 4th Weekend Forecast Range: $33 — 42 million
One Night Only (Universal)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $3 — 5.5 million
Super Troopers 3 (Searchlight)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $3 — 6.5 million
Ice Cream Man (Iconic Events)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $750K — 1.5 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
Never say never: After naively forgetting to add a qualifying “probably” inside the phrasing “the all-time record of $402.1 million … is out of reach” in last week’s forecast for Spider-Man: Brand New Day, it’s a lesson re-learned that anything can happen. That aggregate weekend record *was* usurped as Spidey blew past even the most bullish expectations with a $360.1 million domestic launch, the best in history, as part of an overall $436.6 million moviegoing weekend in North America. Amazing.
With very little direct competition this week, plus the addition of an unconfirmed number of IMAX screens/showtimes alongside strong word of mouth (98 percent Popcornmeter on Rotten Tomatoes; 4.1 from Letterboxd users), BND has a considerable shot at besting Star Wars: The Force Awakens‘ $149.2 million all-time record second weekend performance. Avengers: Endgame‘s $147.4 million is a close second, while BND is essentially locked to surpass the currently #3-ranked Avengers: Infinity War ($114.8 million).
Meanwhile, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey should continue its stellar run after easing just 43.3 percent against the Marvel behemoth last weekend.
Some IMAX showtimes/screens will be lost to Spidey this weekend, but the exact footprint remains unconfirmed. Nolan’s epic is expected to still retain a significant portion of those as many locations had already been on sale (if not nearly sold out) weeks in advance. On a similar note, some of last week’s burn-off came from non-IMAX premium screens being handed over to the Peter Parker blockbuster.
On the milestone front, The Odyssey will surpass The Dark Knight Rises‘ $448.2 million final domestic total during the coming weekend and become Nolan’s second-highest grossing film ever in North America. The Dark Knight‘s $535 million remains his benchmark… for now.
Globally, we can expect The Odyssey to reach the $1 billion threshold around the same time later this week/weekend.
Likely to bow outside the top five are Super Troopers 3 ($3.5 million pinpoint) and Ice Cream Man ($1.3 million pinpoint).
Weekend Forecast
(click or tap chart to expand)
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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