Photo Credits: Sony & Marvel Studios (”Spider-Man: Brand New Day”); Warner Bros. (”The End of Oak Street”); Paramount (”PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie”); Universal & Syncopy (”The Odyssey”)
Spider-Man: Brand New Day (Sony)
BOT Domestic 3rd Weekend Forecast Range: $60 — 72 million
The End of Oak Street (Warner Bros.)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $20 — 31 million
Studio Tracking: $18 — 23 million
PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie (Paramount
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $20 — 28 million
The Odyssey (Universal)
BOT Domestic 5th Weekend Forecast Range: $16.5 — 20.5 million
Six: The Musical (Focus)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $2 — 3.5 million
The Brink of War (Angel)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $1.5 — 3.5 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
Spider-Man: BND should have no trouble claiming another first place finish atop the domestic box office after posting the third highest sophomore frame in history last weekend with $144.3 million.
Climbing the all-time domestic charts, BND looks to eclipse the $700 million mile-marker ahead of the weekend and crack the top five (surpassing Top Gun: Maverick‘s $722 million, as well as Black Panther‘s $700.4 million). The Marvel blockbuster will, however, shed some of its recently gained IMAX showtimes to a new release this weekend...
…that film being The End of Oak Street. While forecasts have come down from our more bullish ranges earlier in the summer, largely as a product of Spidey and The Odyssey performing so strongly, the film still has a favorable spot in the back end of summer with positive reviews (85 percent fresh from 87 Rotten Tomatoes critics), star power (Anne Hathaway in her renaissance year at the box office, plus the ever loveable Ewan McGregor), and a walk-up friendly premise that could attract casual family moviegoers alongside genre fans looking for a taste of old school Spielbergian/Amblin vibes.
Countering the live-action spectacles will be PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie as strong pre-release tracking indicates healthy interest from families and fans of the enduring kid-centric franchise. It could even be a dark horse candidate to open in the runner-up spot behind Spidey.
While Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey may slide down to fourth place this weekend, dollar retention should start stabilizing from the loss of IMAX and premium screens in recent days (though it will hold onto its 70mm IMAX locations and could even regain digital IMAX shows as the release slate slows down in the next few weeks). The film will likely cross the $500 million domestic box office threshold Sunday or Monday, marking only the second film in Nolan’s career to do so (The Dark Knight, $535 million).
On the specialty front, Six: The Musical could be a sleeper to crack the top five this weekend, while Angel will bring out guild members with The Brink of War, and Falling Forward Films releases Nimrods in semi-wide release.
Weekend Forecast
(click or tap chart to expand)
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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