New Year’s Weekend Forecast: MUFASA, SONIC 3 and Holdovers to Usher in 2025 with a Healthy Holiday Holdover Market

As 2025 Begins, Holiday Holdovers Are the Name of the Game

This report also appears on Box Office Theory’s website.

This week’s report will be short and sweet with no major openers on the first full frame of 2025. We’ll return to regular analysis next week after one last holiday frame.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• As noted, there are no major studio releases this weekend as the industry allows the bevy of Christmas week openers and other holdovers to carry the new year’s first weekend. With most schools still closed on January 2 and 3, plus many still on work breaks or vacations, we’re including three- and five-day outlooks below.

Weekend Forecast
(click image below to zoom)

This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 32 percent above the same weekend in 2024 ($75.4 million) and 16 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($119 million).

All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.

For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.

Photo Credits: James Laxton; Photo courtesy of Disney. © 2024 Disney Enterprises Inc. All Rights Reserved. ("Mufasa: The Lion King"); Brandon Trost & Paramount ("Sonic the Hedgehog 3"); Phedon Papamichael & Searchlight Pictures ("A Complete Unknown"); Jarin Blaschke & Focus Features ("Nosferatu")