Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: PROJECT HAIL MARY ($40-45M+) Eyes Career-High Launch for Ryan Gosling, Possible Best for Amazon MGM; How Far Can the Andy Weir Adaptation Go?
As WUTHERING HEIGHTS continues to take shape as 2026's first hit tentpole next week, PROJECT HAIL MARY is increasingly poised to deliver a key early spring box office breakout.
Correction: An edit was made below to recognize Creed III as Amazon’s top opening after the company took over distributor United Artists Releasing.
A preview of this report appears on Box Office Theory’s website.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
Project Hail Mary (March 20)
Andy Weir’s source novel claims a significant fan base as one of the best selling sci-fi novels and audiobooks of the decade, drawing more than 10 million worldwide sales since its release during the pandemic in 2021.
Early trailer reactions have been enthusiastic across fans and those not familiar with the book as the film promises to deliver on the mix of comedy, spectacle, and drama in Weir’s authorial style, previously introduced to audiences via The Martian. Initial genre comparisons favor that Ridley Scott-helmed film as well as Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar.
With a full IMAX and premium screen footprint, plus minimal direct competition, the film’s runway could be extensive through spring if word of mouth is on par with the novel and/or The Martian itself. What remains an unknown variable is how long Amazon MGM will keep it theatrically exclusive beyond the first few weeks.
Ryan Gosling’s star factor has certainly grown in recent years, though it’s worth noting the popular actor’s highest box office debut in the lead role is Blade Runner 2047‘s $32.8 million debut in 2017.
Amazon MGM is still in the early years of its full-on theatrical commitment, so marketing prowess will remain a bit of a variable relative to other major studio tentpoles. That said, PHM‘s likelihood to surpass the studio’s #2 domestic box office opening weekend thus far (Red One‘s $32.1 million) seems a fairly safe bet, while besting the Creed III’s $58.4 million is on the table.
Science-fiction films and adaptations historically have a higher barrier to mainstream audience entry with occasional exceptions. Though possibly on the cautious end, our current models favor the likes of Ready Player One and Dune (despite its mid-pandemic release), though pre-release metrics and screenings/critic reactions in the weeks ahead could drive tracking north of current ranges.
Phil Lord and Christopher Miller have a strong reputation for delivering crowd-pleasing, IP-driven films following their success helming The LEGO Movie alongside the 21 Jump Street and Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs duologies. This further plays into expectations for a strong multiple after opening weekend, especially with Easter landing on its third frame and appeal strongest among men and women over 30.
Ready or Not 2: Here I Come (March 20)
The first film was a sleeper hit back in late summer of 2019, opening to an $11 million five-day, mid-week haul and legging out to $28.7 million domestically ($57.6 million globally overall). 324 critics on Rotten Tomatoes gave the film an 89 percent approval rating, while 5,000+ audiences scored at 78 percent on the Popcornmeter.
The return of star Samara Weaving alongside additions Kathryn Newton, Elijah Wood, Sarah Michelle Gellar, and others amplify the potential ensemble cast of this sequel.
Direct genre competition will be light as Ready or Not 2 debuts three weeks after Scream 7 and faces mostly niche-focused horror titles in late March and early April before Lee Cronin’s The Mummy on April 17.
Early trailer reactions are encouraging, but marketing and buzz will continue to evolve as they always do closer to release for horror pics.
Please note Sony has moved Nate Bargatze’s The Breadwinner from March 13 to May 29 as part of the competitive, family-friendly summer window. We’ll revisit forecasts in this publication at a later date, but remain bullish on its prospects.
Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 2/5/26
(download PDF to view full forecast chart)
