Box Office Weekend Forecast: Christopher Nolan’s THE ODYSSEY Tracking to Defy the Gods, Aims for Potential $100 Million+ Domestic Launch

Nolan's 13th feature film is upon the moviegoing world. Here's what to expect and what's driving final forecasts for the weekend ahead.

Photo Credits: Universal & Syncopy (”The Odyssey”)

The Odyssey (Universal)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $98 — 128 million
Studio Tracking: $80 — 100 million

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Since an admittedly lengthy and unabashedly inner-fan-inspired novel when christening our five-week track, the philosophy has generally remained the same: there is no perfect model for The Odyssey. This is often true of many films, but for reasons I won’t belabor (again) in our final forecast, this has been an exceptionally challenging film to assess — and it will remain so until we start seeing post-Thursday preview numbers throughout the weekend.

• As for preview numbers, we’re currently projecting somewhere in the realm of $15 million-plus, but let’s be clear that is not a pass-fail line in the sand.

  • For context, Oppenheimer opened with $10.5 million from Thursday previews three Julys ago, while Avatar: Fire and Ash and Dune: Part Two earned $12 million each (the latter including IMAX early access).

• From there, the weekend could play out a number of ways. Word of mouth will dictate a lot of extrapolations, but the baseline assumption is that Oppenheimer remains the closest analog — with the exception being that there is no “Barbenheimer” effect in play this time. As dissected in the aforementioned five-week write-up, that introduces unique variables for The Odyssey.

• Universal’s marketing machine has delivered over the past month with a consistent rotation of promotional materials, interviews, and spots during broadcast events such as the World Cup.

  • Notably, that tournament is coming to a close and should pose no threat of competition on Thursday or Friday. Saturday’s third place playoff could be a minor factor, while Sunday’s final is likely the more noteworthy one to watch for in terms of any effects on overall moviegoing attendance (not just The Odyssey‘s).

  • As briefly mentioned two weeks ago, culture war narratives spawning in certain online communities have added to the challenges of assessing this film’s prospects, but we continue to lean in the direction of the localized backlash having little effect among broader audiences. If anything, the sensationalism has raised awareness for the film outside Nolan’s own audience and casual moviegoers.

• Following last week’s ecstatic reactions from critics on social media, today’s full review embargo has lifted to an excellent 98 percent “Certified Fresh” rating from 112 Rotten Tomatoes critics as of this writing. Scores naturally see a slight decline as more reviews are officially submitted, but the pace indicates it will stabilize in the end with a very high score.

• Pre-sales are immense, with the caveat that they have been heavily weighted by IMAX and other premium formats. Standard screens are beginning to sell more tickets for this weekend as seat scarcity for the larger immersive experiences takes hold.

  • That said, this raises a critical factor in forecasts: how many general audiences will be swayed by reviews and check out the film in a non-premium setting during the first weekend (aka, the FOMO element) versus how many will wait for optimal screen availability and/or crowds to ease?

  • Also of note in weekend playability and walk-up potential will be Nolan’s pull among millennials and Gen Z, both of with which are significant components to his audience.

Weekend Forecast
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All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.

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