Weekend Forecast: FLIGHT RISK ($7M+) to Lead Another Light Crop of Openers, But Could MUFASA Reign Yet Again?
The Sparse January Slate Looks to Produce Another Slow Weekend at Movie Theaters
This report also appears on Box Office Theory’s website.
It’s another sleepy January frame as several openers will unfortunately not be able to lift the latest onset of winter box office doldrums.
Flight Risk
Lionsgate
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: n/a
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $7 – 12 million
Brave the Dark
Angel Studios
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: n/a
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $3.5 – 6.5 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
Flight Risk is courting the older male audience that has driven recent films such as Den of Thieves 2: Pantera, The Beekeeper, Expend4bles, and others. The initial on-sale of tickets included a free ticket promotion for Thursday previews, skewing many pre-sale comps. Still, trends for the remainder of the weekend are notably modest, and no reviews are available at the time of this report’s writing. With NFL playoffs reaching their pre-Super Bowl crescendo this weekend, it will be up to the star power of Mark Wahlberg and director Mel Gibson to bring out the core demographics.
Brave the Dark marks Angel Studios’ latest theatrical counter-programmer that should again rally the faithful audience that has supported their recent films (Homestead, Bonhoeffer, et al). Pre-sales are comparable to those and other similar titles.
Presence is drawing notable upfront pre-sales in sample markets, but an official theater count has not been confirmed by Neon. We’re excluding it from forecasts for now, but it could be a candidate to sneak past one of the forecasted films below and crack the top ten.
Likewise, no theater counts are yet available for The Brutalist, which is expected to continue expanding into more markets nationwide. It, too, should reach the top ten after landing just outside at #11 last weekend with $1.98 million from 338 locations.
Coming off the lowest-grossing MLK weekend since 1997 (outside of 2022 and 2021 as COVID-impacted years), the market will again see historically low performances. Holdovers remain crucial and most should see modest declines, helping to extend the slight year-over-year advantage versus 2024 up to this point.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 25 percent above the same weekend in 2024 ($41.7 million, led by the third weekends of Mean Girls and The Beekeeper) and 30 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($73.8 million, led by the second frame of Glass).
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.
Photo Credits: Johnny Derango & Lionsgate ("Flight Risk"); Julio Macat & Angel Studios ("Brave the Dark")