Weekend Forecast: MOANA 2 Sets Sail for Thanksgiving Record Debut, Forming a Historic Holiday Box Office Storm with WICKED and GLADIATOR II
The "Glickedana" Trifecta Will Anchor of the Best Thanksgiving Box Office Frames In Recent Memory
This report also appears on Box Office Theory’s website.
An historic Thanksgiving weekend may be at hand as Disney launches their highly anticipated sequel, Moana 2, in a market already being lifted by last weekend’s combination of Wicked and Gladiator II.
Disney’s tentpole holiday event is on course for new three- and five-day record debuts for Thanksgiving, marks currently owned by Moana 2‘s predecessor ($56.6 million 3-day) and Ralph Breaks the Internet ($84.75 million 5-day). Among all movies (holdovers included), the biggest individual Thanksgiving showings belong to Frozen II‘s second weekend ($85.6 million 3-day and $125 million 5-day).
Moana 2 could also land among the best-ever 5-day takes for an animated film, currently topped by Incredibles 2 ($233.4 million), Inside Out 2 ($205.5 million), The Super Mario Bros. Movie ($204.6 million), Finding Dory ($177.8 million), and Frozen II ($163.8 million).
Please note, studio and industry’s expectations are more modest as the above thresholds certainly do not reflect what would be considered successful for the film.
Meanwhile, the overall domestic market record for a 3-day Thanksgiving weekend belongs to 2018 when the Ralph sequel and Creed II opened. That frame delivered $216 million from Friday through Sunday, and $314.9 million across the Wednesday-Sunday span, additional benchmarks we might see topped over the weekend.
The coming 3-day could also land near the best November weekends all around, with the November 20, 2009 ($258.6 million, led by The Twilight Saga: New Moon), November 16, 2012 ($249.3 million, led by Breaking Dawn, Part 2), and November 22, 2013 ($225.6 million, led by The Hunger Games: Catching Fire) ranking as the top three currently.
Moana 2
November 27, 2024
Walt Disney Pictures
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $125 million+ (5-day)
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $155 – 190 million (5-day)
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
Moana 2 is benefiting from eight years of its predecessor’s popularity with strong appeal to families and young women. Sample market pre-sales are consistently ahead of the pace of 2023’s The Little Mermaid at the same point, with few apples-to-apples comparisons due to the mid-week Thanksgiving launch. For now, we expect Tuesday’s previews (beginning at 2pm) to earn between $10 and $12 million, pinpointing around $11.3 million as of Tuesday morning.
As noted in previous forecasts, the variables on Moana 2 are hard to ignore: The film was originally planned as a Disney+ streaming series and does not feature the return of Lin-Manuel Miranda in a songwriting capacity. However, the return of Dwayne Johnson and Auli’i Cravalho anchor tentpole-level appeal for the core audience. Early critics’ reviews are middling with a 69 fresh Rotten Tomatoes score across 72 reviews, well below the original film’s 95 percent. The latter boasts an 89 percent audience score, so it will now be up to fans to determine whether this sequel lives up to the hype.
Moana 2 also runs into Wicked‘s second frame, which is trending very well on the back of 96 percent audience score (and 90 percent from critics) after delivering one of the best live-action musical debuts in history. Moana 2 will take over a significant share of premium screens this weekend, while Wicked and Gladiator II will be further relegated to showtime sharing duties in that space for now.
Ultimately, while Moana 2 clearly has an ample amount of anticipation driving stronger likely box office results than once expected, it and Wicked are poised for a showdown as a pair of family-friendly, female-driven musicals settling in for a long holiday corridor through the end of the year.
As for Gladiator II, it faces the least direct competition this weekend and hopes to ride its 84 percent audience score to a strong holiday hold with adult male audiences.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 100 percent above Thanksgiving weekend in 2023 ($109.3 million) and 31 percent above Thanksgiving weekend in 2019 ($167.3 million).
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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Photo Credits: Alice Brooks & Universal ("Wicked"); © 2024 Disney Enterprises, Inc. All Rights Reserved. ("Moana 2"); John Mathieson & Paramount ("Gladiator II")