Weekend Forecast: Will RED ONE Cash In on Dwayne Johnson’s Family Appeal and a Timely Holiday Release?
Christmas Arrives A Little Early as RED ONE Hopes to Ride Its Star-Driven Sleigh Power to Box Office Success
This report also appears on Box Office Theory’s website.
November box office begins to ramp up a bit more this weekend as Amazon’s star-driven, hopeful IP-launcher rides into theaters one week ahead of Wicked and Gladiator II‘s combined oncoming storm.
Red One
November 15, 2024
Amazon & MGM Studios
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $30 – 35 million
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $26 – 33 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
Dwayne Johnson’s family appeal is the anchoring factor with Red One given his all-demographic audience reach and the success of past films like the Jumanji sequels around the holiday season. Chris Evans and the promise of a family-friendly two-hander themed specifically for Christmas should be additional drivers as the film, kid-friendly and fresh IP from Amazon and MGM Studios, launches with a full premium screen footprint.
Pre-sales and general tracking for Red One have measured closely to the likes of IF and The Garfield Movie, but critics’ reviews are underwhelming with a 35 percent fresh score from 69 submissions on Rotten Tomatoes. Whether or not this type of movie will be critic-proof in a market that’s relatively empty of fresh family content remains to be seen, especially in an era where parents are conscious of what they’re spending money on outside the home and with the likely assumption (though not confirmed) by many that a film like this could be streaming by or before year’s end. Still, the lack of direct competition for a father-and-son audience until December bodes well for overall staying power if audiences are more welcoming than critics have been.
On the holdover front, Venom: The Last Dance looks to take a minor hit after three weekends in first place. The crowd-pleasing Eddie Brock trilogy finisher not only faces some direct audience competition in Red One, it will also lose the vast remainder of its PLF presence to that film.
Similarly, Heretic will lose what modest premium footprint it had after debuting last weekend, but could otherwise see a respectable hold with positive reception from genre fans and no real competition ahead. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever also hopes to display sturdy legs in the weeks ahead with strong family audience scores and the holiday window driving it.
Anora is expected to receive another expansion this weekend, though the studio has not confirmed exactly how many locations that will be. As such, we're withholding forecasts on that title for now.
Weekend Forecast
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This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 43 percent below the same weekend in 2023 ($110.9 million) and 30 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($89.6 million).
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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Photo Credits: Dan Mindel & Amazon MGM Studios ("Red One")